Cogress Comments on Nationwide's House Price Index, June

Cain McKinnon, Cogress Investment Analyst, comments on Nationwide's House Price Index, June 2019:


UK Housing Market Remains Resilient to Drawn-Out Negativity

While UK annual house price growth remained subdued at 0.5%, prices have once again dodged negative growth. On a monthly seasonally adjusted change, the market experienced positive growth from May.

Scotland and Ireland outperformed England with 5.2% and 4.2% growth respectively, but continue to show signs of fluctuating growth and contraction. While London and the greater England areas have experienced negative growth, we should note that the pace of contraction and expansion has been comparatively stable. For homeowners and investors, this means there is less likelihood of a correction and reduces speculation.

Unsurprisingly, the London housing market remains one of the worst performers. However, in real terms it is only 5% below 2017’s all-time highs and is most likely stable. The more important indicator is activity in the market, which has remained subdued.

Overall the market is experiencing modest growth in predictable areas and proving relatively resilient to a drawn-out period of negative sentiment and subdued activity. A continued search for value, and lower barriers to entry, will favour the regions as the market recovers from the ‘hold and wait’ period.

Nationwide's UK House Price Index is published monthly, and can be found in full here

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