Cogress Comments on Today's UK House Price Index Data Release

Daniel Levene, Head of Analysis at Cogress, comments on the release of the UK House Price England Index: March 2019.

“England annual house price growth of 1.1% is marginally up on the previous month, however, it still sits significantly below inflation and is therefore continuing to show a contraction in real terms, as it has done since Q4 2018.

When you compare England annual house price growth in March to the highest growth achieved over the last four years (9.5% in March 2016) and the average over that same four year period (5.2%), you can see how far and fast the market has fallen in a relatively short time.

Per the March data, London is continuing to contract at -1.9%, albeit at a lower rate than in February (-2.7%). Looking further into the London Borough specific data, there’s still a strong correlation between year on year house price growth and lower value housing. For instance, Kensington and Chelsea is still the worst performing borough whilst areas like Newham and Hackney are proving to be much more resilient.

Conjecture would suggest that these boroughs are better stocked by the Government’s Help-to-Buy scheme, which has a maximum eligible house price of £600k.

Much is being made of Stamp Duty and Brexit sentiment discouraging householders from moving, the data clearly corroborates this. The number of transactions in England have dropped by over 12% (19% for London) year on year as people wait for further political and economic certainty.”

 

The UK House Price England Index: March 2019 is published by HM Land Registry, and is available in full here

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